My top predictions have midterm election map turning red, just how red?
The Associated Press and Politico both released their top election maps on Friday, two weeks out from the big election. They show Republicans keeping a solid lead in the Senate, with all but two seats up for grabs in red states such as Texas, but falling short in the majority of states.
Both maps show the Republicans holding a slight overall advantage, with Democrats looking like a long shot to take back the Senate or get a significant number of seats in the House.
Democrats were clearly bullish on their chances in the 2018 election, with their chief strategist telling National Journal that Democrats were “winning” everywhere. But if the Democratic map, particularly in red states like Texas, turns red, it seems unlikely the Democrats will have a path to victory.
Here’s my breakdown of the new maps, based on where I think Democrats will lose seats and how much Republicans will hold on to.
State Senate Red map — Red areas are more Republican and blue areas are more Democratic. Democrats would need to flip all five seats held by Republicans in red states, which are mostly in the upper Midwest.
There are three key Red areas where Democrats are likely to lose seats in red states.
The key Red state is in a congressional district that has a heavily Republican rural community and a heavily Democratic urban core. If Democrats win any of these seats in the midterms, it will be a first, as Republicans have held the seat since George H.W. Bush won in 1992.
Arizona is the next big Red state, with Democrats looking at the Arizona Senate seat held by Jeff Flake. The Democrats are defending four-year governor Doug Ducey in the red Arizona Senate seat held by Martha McSally.
Michigan, Florida and Nevada are Red states where if Democrats take all three, it will be a first.
Democrats may have trouble holding on in a handful of other Red congressional districts in states with Democratic governors, like New York and Maryland.
In the upper Midwest, the map looks very similar to the GOP’s map, the only surprise being a couple competitive Republican seats in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Democrats need to